How PSX Invest Analyses Every Stock
Every signal you see has passed through nine layers of analysis — technical indicators, AI reasoning, news intelligence, macroeconomic context, and sector momentum — before reaching you. Here is exactly what happens.
Market Data Collection
We start by collecting the most accurate, up-to-date market data available for every stock on the Pakistan Stock Exchange.
End-of-Day Price Data
Open, High, Low, Close, and Volume (OHLCV) for every PSX-listed stock — up to 4 months of history used for machine learning and technical calculations.
News Intelligence
Recent news articles for each stock are collected and analysed for sentiment — positive developments, risks, and key events that could move the price.
Live Web Intelligence
Real-time web search provides the latest context about each stock — recent announcements, analyst commentary, sector developments, and market-moving events.
Pakistan Macro Intelligence
Monetary policy (discount rate), currency stability, geopolitical conditions, IMF programme status, and economic phase are continuously monitored to adjust signal confidence.
Technical Indicator Engine
Nine technical indicators are calculated from the raw price data to give a complete picture of momentum, trend, volatility, and volume.
RSI (14-period)
Momentum oscillator — detects overbought and oversold conditions
MACD
Trend-following indicator — true crossover detection only (no false positives)
Bollinger Bands
Volatility envelope — identifies breakouts and breakdowns
Moving Averages
SMA20, SMA50, EMA12, EMA26 — trend direction + Golden/Death Cross detection
ADX
Trend strength filter — breakout signals suppressed in ranging/choppy markets
Support & Resistance
Key price levels identified from historical highs and lows
Trend Detection
Direction, duration, and strength of the prevailing price trend
Volatility
Annualised standard deviation of returns — calibrated to PSX norms
Volume Analysis
Volume spike detection — confirms or rejects price signals
Liquidity gate: Stocks with insufficient average daily trading value are automatically excluded before any signal is generated. Illiquid stocks have wide spreads and unpredictable fills — signals on them are unreliable.
AI Analysis
An advanced AI model trained on financial markets independently analyses each stock — receiving raw numbers, not pre-computed signals — and produces a structured verdict.
The AI receives:
- All 9 technical indicators
- Last 5 days of OHLCV price action
- News sentiment summary
- Live web intelligence context
- Pakistan macro-economic conditions
The AI outputs:
- BUY / SELL / HOLD signal
- Confidence score (0–100%)
- 3–5 plain-English reasoning points
- Risk level: LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
- Target price + stop loss (PKR)
- Time horizon: SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG
Conservative by design: The AI outputs HOLD unless at least 2 independent factors confirm the same direction. Weak signals never reach users — the AI would rather say nothing than say something wrong.
Multi-Layer Confidence Scoring
AI and technical signals are fused through five sequential adjustment layers to produce a single, calibrated confidence score that reflects all available information.
AI + Technical Fusion
AI confidence (60% weight) is combined with the best matching technical signal (40% weight). Agreement between AI and technicals boosts the score; conflict reduces it significantly.
Volume, Key Levels & Trend
Volume spikes add confidence. Proximity to key support/resistance levels adds more. Trend alignment with the signal direction adds further — counter-trend signals are penalised. Multiple confirming technical signals receive an additional bonus.
Volatility Adjustment
High-volatility stocks carry execution risk. Confidence is reduced for stocks with abnormally high price swings — calibrated specifically to normal PSX volatility ranges.
Market Regime & Macro Risk
When the overall PSX market is bearish, BUY confidence is reduced. Pakistan-specific macro risks (political instability, currency stress, monetary tightening) apply further context-aware adjustments.
Sector Momentum
If peer stocks in the same sector (Banks, Oil & Gas, Cement, etc.) are all moving in the same direction, the signal is more reliable. Sector confirmation adds confidence; sector contradiction reduces it.
Final confidence = result of the full A→E pipeline, clamped to a 0–95% range. Any signal below 65% confidence is discarded and never shown to users.
Opportunity Detection & Quality Filters
Ten distinct signal types are checked, each with specific trigger conditions and quality guards to eliminate false positives before any opportunity is recorded.
RSI Oversold
RSI below 30 with price already beginning to recover — not a falling knife
RSI Overbought
RSI above 70 — momentum stretched, mean reversion likely
MACD Crossover
True histogram sign-change only — no false signals when MACD is merely elevated
Bollinger Breakout
Price above upper band with volume confirmation and trending market (ADX ≥ 20)
Bollinger Breakdown
Price below lower band with volume confirmation — suppressed when RSI is deeply oversold
Golden Cross
Short-term average crosses above long-term average — trend shift signal
Death Cross
Short-term average crosses below long-term average — bearish trend shift
Momentum
Strong single-day move (>3%) with volume and trending market — capitulation selloffs excluded
AI Signal
High-confidence AI verdict when no matching technical signal exists — pure AI-driven opportunity
Time horizon is deterministic: Each signal type has a known resolution timeframe based on how the indicator behaves historically. The expected-by date is computed from this — no guessing.
Machine Learning Predictions
Alongside rule-based signals, four independent machine learning models predict price direction from historical patterns — providing a second, model-driven opinion.
Linear Regression
Trend extrapolation from price history
Logistic Regression
Probability of up/down movement
K-Nearest Neighbours
Pattern matching from historical setups
Neural Network
Deep learning on multi-factor features
All four models run in parallel and produce a consensus signal with individual confidence scores. Results are displayed alongside the AI analysis so you can see both a data-driven and a reasoning-driven perspective on the same stock.
Intraday Monitoring
During PSX market hours, a live intraday engine monitors price ticks every minute — tracking active signals and alerting you the moment a target price or stop loss is hit.
Live Price Ticks
Real-time price data collected during market hours (9:15 AM – 3:30 PM PKT)
Candle Building
1-minute and 5-minute OHLCV candles constructed from raw ticks for intraday analysis
TP/SL Monitoring
Active signals are checked every minute — instant alert when your target or stop loss is reached
Intraday AI Analysis
AI analysis refreshes every 5 minutes on current candle data during market hours
Instant Alerts
The moment an opportunity is confirmed, you are notified — in-app in real time and by email — so you never miss a signal on a stock you're watching.
In-App (Real-Time)
- Notification appears instantly when opportunity is created
- Toast pops up without refreshing the page
- Badge count on notification bell updates live
- Read/unread state persists across sessions
Email Alerts
- BUY opportunities sent immediately to your inbox
- Includes signal, confidence score, target price, stop loss
- Time horizon and expected-by date included
- Daily digest email at 6:30 PM PKT summarises the day
Outcome Tracking
Every signal is tracked to measure real-world performance. Day 1, Day 3, and Day 7 prices are recorded — giving you an honest, auditable view of signal accuracy over time.
Day 1
Price checked the following trading day — captures short-term momentum signals
Day 3
Price checked after 3 trading days — validates medium-term setups
Day 7
Price checked after 7 trading days — confirms longer-term trend calls
WIN
Price moved ≥ 100% of the distance to target
PARTIAL
Price moved 50–99% of the way to target
FAILED
Price moved less than 50% toward target
What Makes the Difference
Most stock screeners apply a single rule. We apply nine layers — and discard anything that doesn't pass all of them.
Nine-Layer Pipeline
From raw market data to a final confidence score, every signal passes through data collection, 9 technical indicators, AI analysis, 5-step fusion, and quality gates.
Strict Quality Gates
Any signal below 65% final confidence is automatically discarded. Signals in illiquid, choppy, or capitulation conditions are suppressed to protect you from false positives.
Pakistan-Specific Context
Pakistan macro conditions, sector dynamics, and PSX-calibrated volatility thresholds are built into the scoring — not generic global models.
AI + Rules + Machine Learning
Three independent approaches — rule-based technical signals, AI reasoning, and four ML models — are combined to remove the weaknesses of any single method.
Time-Aware Signals
Every signal comes with a deterministic time horizon and expected-by date — so you know whether you're looking at a 3-day trade or a 3-month position.
Auditable Track Record
Every signal is tracked at Day 1, 3, and 7. WIN / PARTIAL / FAILED outcomes are recorded — giving you a transparent, honest view of signal performance.
Runs Automatically Every Day
You don't need to trigger anything. The entire pipeline runs on a fixed daily schedule.
6:00 PM PKT
Full analysis pipeline
6:30 PM PKT
Outcome tracking update
6:30 PM PKT
Daily digest email
Market hours
Intraday engine (1-min)
See It Working on Your Stocks
Add any PSX stock to your watchlist and let the full pipeline run on it — for free.